2.3.2026 Gary Black believes The Future Fund's ETF long only and long/short portfolios are positioned appropriately for a not too hot, not too cold economic environment, which is what it's forecasting over the next 12 to 18 months. The firm expects slowing job growth, leading to continued Fed easing and greater volatility as a new Fed chair steps in.
TRANSCRIPT: Thanks everyone for joining us today.
At The Future Fund, we believe our long only, and long/short portfolios are positioned appropriately for a not too hot, not too cold economic environment, which is what we're forecasting over the next 12 to 18 months. We expect slowing job growth, leading to continued Fed easing and greater volatility as a new Fed chair steps in.
Our portfolios are positioned to benefit from increasing demand for AI, greater data and data security needs, increased consumer discretionary spending as young adults put off having kids and spend more on what we call Lifestyle Betterment, as our population gets older and as people consume more media and entertainment 24/7, shop anytime anywhere, and they run their lives from their phones.
Markets entered 2026 with expectations of 2- 3% GDP growth, two rate cuts by the Fed, a hawkish new Fed chair, likely coming in in May, bottom up forecast of 10 to 12% S&P earnings growth and tech stocks expected to continue to lead the market higher.
We believe 2026 S&P earnings estimates will come down as job growth slows to a new normal of 50,000 to a 100,000 net jobs per month, greater discipline in AI infrastructure spend, and loss in pricing flexibility as inflation continues to cool.
We do not view the recent meltdown in gold and silver as a harbinger of greater systemic risks in either the equity or bond markets, but rather as an orderly liquidation in precious metals driven by leverage and loss of momentum rather than a deterioration of long-term fundamentals.
Similarly, we do not view Trump's selection of Kevin Warsh as incoming Fed chair as a threat to equity or bond markets, as we believe interest rates will continue to fall as employment growth slows, but the magnitude of the precious metals meltdown
could be a harbinger of future volatility.
Long-duration assets may fall in the short term if the volatility continues, reflecting a concern that a Warsh-led Fed might tolerate higher interest rates for longer. We expect equities to go to new all-time highs, given solid, not too hot, not too cold economic growth, continued Fed easing, and a market we view as neither over or undervalued at a 2026 P/E of 22.4x, which is a 4.5% earnings yield, versus a current 10-year Treasury yield of 4.3%. This compares to a historic equity risk premium over the past 50 years of about 50 basis points.
Our major investment themes, driven by the megatrends include: Social media, Mobility, E-commerce, Climate sustainability, AI and automation, Big data and security, People living longer, Fintech, Lifestyle betterment, and last, 24/7 Information and entertainment.
Thanks for joining us today. We look forward to meeting with you again next quarter.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Funds before investing. The FFND prospectus, FFLS prospectus, FFOX prospectus and FFOX summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Funds and should be read carefully before investing. The FFND and FFLS prospectuses may be obtained by calling 877.466.7090. The FFOX prospectus may be obtained by calling 800.323.1510.
FFND and FFLS are distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. The Future Fund LLC is the investment advisor to the Funds, and is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC. FFOX is distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. One Capital Management is the investment advisor, The Future Fund LLC is the subadvisor to the Fund, and is not affiliated with Quasar Distributors, LLC, or Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.
Opinions expressed are attributable to the speaker and are as of the date of this interview, February 3, 2026. The Future Fund LLC is an SEC-registered investment advisor and advisor to The Future Fund ETFs.
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